Shane Rourke

Shane Rourke is a quantitative sports handicapper who uses proprietary computer models, performance databases, and live market analysis to uncover betting value before the public catches up.

Rather than relying on opinions, narratives, or “gut feelings,” Shane’s process begins with the numbers. His system processes large sets of historical and current data to project game outcomes, compare true win probability against the betting market, and isolate wagers where the line does not match the model’s expected result.

“The line is not wrong because a team is better. The line is wrong when the probability is priced incorrectly.”

How the S.R. System Picks Games

1. Builds an independent projection. Before reviewing betting lines, Shane’s computer model creates an internal projection for each game. Depending on the sport, the model weighs factors such as:

• Team and player efficiency ratings
• Recent form, adjusted for quality of competition
• Offensive and defensive matchup data
• Home/road splits and venue effects
• Injuries, expected lineups, and player availability
• Pace, possession, tempo, and scoring profiles
• Starting pitcher, bullpen, and platoon data in baseball
• Quarterback, pass-rush, turnover, and red-zone efficiency in football
• Rest, travel, schedule density, and fatigue indicators
• Weather, surface, altitude, and other game-environment variables when relevant

The output is a projected score, projected margin, win probability, and total for every matchup.

2. Compares the model to the market. Once the model produces its numbers, Shane compares them with the available spread, moneyline, and total, looking for gaps between:

• The model’s projected point spread and the sportsbook’s spread
• The model’s projected total and the listed over/under
• The calculated win probability and the implied probability of the moneyline
• Early market pricing and later line movement
• The public betting direction and sharper market signals

For example, if the S.R. model makes a team a 6.5-point favorite but the market lists that team at -3.5, the model has identified a potential four-point discrepancy. That alone does not create a play—but it puts the game on Shane’s shortlist for deeper review.

Over the last five years, Mr. Rourke has maintained a whopping 63.4% on his 3-unit plays, while his strongest 5-unit plays hit at 60.223%.